As far as I can tell there are three groups of people out there right now. While not perfectly clean lines between them, there does seem to be less gray than I imagined.

• Group 1 – Normals: People who are doing normal things regardless of the risks or numbers.
• Group 2 – Possibles: People who will try to do normal things if they feel safe enough.
• Group 3 – Nevers: People who won’t do normal things, even if safety precautions are taken.

I’ve been super curious about the sizes of each group. I think we all should. Because the size of those groups relative to one another will directly impact our strategy.

Let me explain what I mean by walking through some scenarios.

Even Split: 33%/33%/33%
In this situation, each group is equal in size. Which means that by reopening we could get 33% of revenue back without doing a thing as the Normals return. We could get another 33% with unique marketing and operations efforts like PureClean and CystalClean that convince the Possibles it is safe. But then there are 33% – the Nevers – we’d just have to write off.

The two keys numbers, however, are a max visitation of 67% and 33% who have to be convinced to come.

Heavy on Nevers: 25%/25%/50%
Let’s try another. In this case, 25% – the Normals – will come anyway, 25% – the Possibles – will need to be convinced it’s safe, and 50% – the Nevers – you write off.

Now, those key numbers are 50% max visitation and 25% who need to be convinced.

Best Guess: 50%/40%/10%
Ask me to guess these numbers and it’ll be different in the morning than it is at night, but that’d be my best guess right now looking through the only local lens I have: Utah and the mountain west.

In this case, max visitation is 90% and 40% need to be convinced.

Normal: 100%/0%/0%
This is normal operations. In which case, you don’t have to worry about max visitation and you don’t have to worry about how to talk to folks about cleanliness because there isn’t anyone out there whose behavior will change if you do.

No Possibles: 80%/0%/20%
But the same is true if you only have Normals and Nevers. If there are no Possibles out there? Then you don’t need to talk them. You operate at 80% capacity and ignore the Nevers.

What I’d Do
If I were you, I’d do a simple, two-question survey to your database today and then every month or so until the ski season starts. My questions would be a follows:

1: If the ski season started today, I would:
A) Come skiing, no questions asked.
B) Come skiing, but only if certain safety procautions were taken.
C) Not come skiing, regardless of safety procautions.
D) I currently cannot afford to ski.

2: If you answered (B) above, what procautions would be required to help you feel comfortable enough to come skiing?

That’s it. I’d probably put Q1 right into my email template as links and then segment clickers by their responses so i could speak more specifically to each group later. As I mentioned, I’d also repeat this survey every 3-4 weeks. Or do a second version around lodging or summer activities.

This survey would not only help me quantify how many people I need to convince to come (above and beyond normal reasons to visit), but it would pinpoint the hurdles I need to remove from their path (with the help of the rest of the resort) to do that.

We’re talking to these groups already, but I think it’s time for a more data-driven approach.

About Gregg & SlopeFillers
I've had more first-time visitors lately, so adding a quick "about" section. I started SlopeFillers in 2010 with the simple goal of sharing great resort marketing strategies. Today I run marketing for resort ecommerce and CRM provider Inntopia, my home mountain is the lovely Nordic Valley, and my favorite marketing campaign remains the Ski Utah TV show that sold me on skiing as a kid in the 90s.